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MANIFOLD
Who will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election?
36
αΉ€655αΉ€4.3k
Nov 9
43%
Eric Swalwell
21%
Tom Steyer
9%
Matt Mahan
7%
Chad Bianco
5%
Steve Hilton
3%
Katie Porter
3%
Other
2%
Zoltan Istuan
2%
Alex Padilla
1.2%
Xavier Becerra

Gavin Newsom is term-limited. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_California_gubernatorial_election

Resolves when the race is projected by a major news outlet or Dave Wasserman. Re-resolves in the rare event that an initial projection does not match official election results.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

Market context
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Why is Swalwell so high

https://manifold.markets/news/2026-california-governor-election?r=TnpKYWNrMG4

I made a dashboard so you can find other California Governor markets easily

bought αΉ€10 YES

How come others can add answers and I can’t

@Jack0 Try now!

I think it was a moderator-only option before