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Well, it looks like the "Other" option is going to resolve N/A after all

@PlasmaBallin Yup. 😔

I’m feeling optimistic about Binkley! That delegate threshold is pretty low.

@MarkHamill You can vote for him in our Manifold straw poll! It matters just as much as the Nevada primary!

Lets go Binkley

@PlasmaBallin Other should still be at a very high probability. With the clarified resolution criteria, "Other" means, "Conditional on anyone getting second place, will it be someone other than Trump, Haley, or DeSantis?" There's no way Trump is getting second place, and neither Haley nor DeSantis is on the ballot, so if anyone gets second, it will be Binkley. Which means "Other" will resolve YES or N/A.

@PlasmaBallin Ngl I assumed this would be a certain N/A and goofed around for paper profits

@Bayesian Depends on how strategic Haley voters are. If I was a Haley supporter in Nevada, I would caucus for Binkley just to try to take delegates away from Trump.

@PlasmaBallin What do u evaluate are the oods of NA?

@Bayesian I think N/A is likely, but I don't know what I would put the exact odds at.

@PlasmaBallin in case anyone wants to try to guess the odds

After asking #mod-help, I’ve decided that “Other” will resolve N/A if no one receives delegates, while all other listed candidates will resolve No, because of the lack of clarity on whether Other refers to all unlisted candidates (which would resolve No) or all other potential outcomes including there not being a second place finisher at all (which would resolve Yes). I understand that’s frustrating for those on Other and really don’t like having to resolve something N/A, but it seems like the fairest option.

@MarkHamill So, just clarifying - are there any scenarios where "Other" will resolve "NO" (instead of "N/A")?

@PaintspotInfez I believe this would occur iff Trump, Haley, or DeSantis got second place. But this is basically impossible now.

If only one candidate gets delegates, what will this resolve?

@EricGan Ha, this market is so old it doesn’t really make sense anymore. Haley shouldn’t be there either since she isn’t participating. If I were to do it by the book, I’d N/A, but it looks like the market seems to want Other to resolve Yes and all the others to No, so I’ll honor that.

@MarkHamill None of that matches up with the terms you set. Might as well just do it accurately, or give every candidate who participated in the caucus a yes if they are all tied for 2nd at 0. Or just N/A it and give people back their money.

According to https://nevadagop.org/2024-presidential-caucus/, Ron Desantis will not be on the ballot, and Donald Trump and Ryan Binkley are the only candidates who will be on the ballot. I'm unsure how reliable that source is and couldn't find anything else on it, but nowhere else contradicts it. According to other sources, you can't vote for a candidate in Nevada not on the ballot.

I was mostly asking about if Ryan Binkley got no votes whether he would be the only one who got second? I think the answer should be yes, since other people aren't competing? So if either candidate drops out of the caucus, I think this market should resolve N/A, and if Binkley gets less than Trump (even if he gets 0), I think it should resolve 100% Other and 0 for everyone else. Unless there's some clear evidence for the rules being different.