What will the gender gap be in the Trump/Harris election according to the 2024 AP VoteCast exit poll?
Standard
2
Ṁ1014Nov 8
1D
1W
1M
ALL
15%
12 points or less
15%
13-15 points
16%
16-18 points
17%
19-21 points
15%
21-24 points
15%
24-27 points
4%
27-30 points
4%
31 or more points
A new type of margin of victory market that we don’t even need election results for! Based on the AP VoteCast survey conducted the weeks up to the election, released Election Day, what will the gender gap be between Trump and Harris?
Gender gap here is calculated by Trump’s polled margin of victory among men minus his margin of victory among women.
In 2020, he won men by 5 and lost women by -12, so the gender gap was 17. https://www.npr.org/2020/11/03/929478378/understanding-the-2020-electorate-ap-votecast-survey
In 2016 (before VoteCast was launched), he won men by 12 and lost women by -12, so the gender gap was 24. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/08/us/politics/election-exit-polls.html
What will it be in 2024?
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