A new type of margin of victory market that we don’t even need election results for! Based on the AP VoteCast survey conducted the weeks up to the election, released Election Day, what will the gender gap be between Trump and Harris?
Gender gap here is calculated by Trump’s polled margin of victory among men minus his margin of victory among women. (Note this is different than how Wikipedia counts it. I disagree with their methodology because they totally ignore shifts in men.)
In 2020, he won men by 5 and lost women by -12, so the gender gap was 17. https://www.npr.org/2020/11/03/929478378/understanding-the-2020-electorate-ap-votecast-survey
In 2016 (before VoteCast was launched), he won men by 12 and lost women by -12, so the gender gap was 24. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/08/us/politics/election-exit-polls.html
What will it be in 2024?
1,000
3.00"Harris had the advantage among women, winning 53% to Trump’s 46%, but that margin was somewhat narrower than Biden’s. Biden won 55% of women, while 43% went for Trump. His support held steady among white women — slightly more than half supported him, similar to 2020." So the margin was 6.
I calculated the margin among men to be 10.96 points based on the graph with the breakdown of men 18-44/45+.
11+6=17. Identical to 2020 and lower than 2016.