Will Messi win Ballon d'Or?
resolved Oct 31

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lionel Messi wins the Ballon d'Or for 2023. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market is France Football’s website: https://www.francefootball.fr/ballon-d-or/palmares/, however live footage of the ceremony and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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predicted YES

Resolves Yes


Lionel Messi Football GIF by FC Barcelona

The 36-year-old Lionel Messi is the favorite to win the 2023 Ballon D'or. For the 2022-2023 season, Messi achieved three titles; World Cup, Ligue 1, and the Trophee dee Champions, with a 67-goal contribution (35 goals and 32 assists). During the World Cup, Messi was named man of the match in 5/7 Argentina games, and won the Golden Ball Award (the first player in history to achieve the award twice), achieving 7 goals, 3 assists, and 347 passes. I believe no other player had a better performance in the 22/23 season than Lionel Messi, that is why I believe he will obtain the 8th Ballon D'or and become the greatest footballer of all time. 

predicted YES
predicted NO

I would give to Haaland much better chances to win than current valuation (92% Messi). Looks like NO is worth a bet.

Messi, as we know, is far more than a goalscorer. Indeed, his creativity in setting up others to find the net is practically unrivaled.

This campaign, Messi had 20 assists in 41 matches for PSG. That surpassed his total of 15 in 34 matches in 2021/22.
Messi's assist average is so strong this season because of the number of chances he's created per match. 

A figure of 2.92 chances created per game is an increase from 2.46 last campaign, while he's playing substantially more passes into the opposition's penalty area, as well. But givent the fact that some of the factors considered for wining the Ballon d'Or are team success during the previous season. Given that the Messi now is not playing in top football legue and footbool club which in my opinion in order to wing the Ballon d'Or you shoud play in top compatiteve legue and club I don't think he will won. I don't want to comment the fact that Argentina won the word cup because, when we look at the past we can see many examples of best players who have won FiFA World Cup, and much more in the same year and still didn't won the Ballon d'Or. Given the competion for wining i can see players with similar stats but the question is what weight these results carry in regards to the difficulty of the competition.

@AlexanderJankov Historical data on Messi's average assist this season is 10.5% higher than last season, which contradicts the bet of Messi NOT winning the Ballon d'Or (Transfermarkt, 2023b). The bet also did not consider Messi's average goals per game increase of 83% this season nor match streaks, which are important KPIs for winning the Ballon d'Or (Jankov, 2023).

Moreover, including current data and market conditions for Messi's competitors nominated for the Ballon d'Or would be valuable. For instance, Haaland has a 0.98% goal-per-game rate, while Messi has a 0.59% goal-per-game rate and would support the bet on Messi not winning the


bet (Transfermart, 2023a). Overall, we support making a different bet, considering that Messi's performance was better than last season when he won the Ballon d'Or. This season, Messi won the World Cup and was also nominated the best player of the competition, which overcomes the fact that Haaland has a better goal-per-game rate. Hence, we suggest betting YES for Messi winning the Ballon d'Or.

Furthermore, betting NO on Manifold translates to a potential +996% payout. Nevertheless, betting YES has a potential payout of +9%, which shows how the ODDS expect Messi to win the Ballon d'Or, and we can still profit from the bet.

Team 10:

Paul Hawes, Wagner Lessa, Sebastian Prieto, Ganga Singh, Eduardo Soto, Juan Soto.

@WagnerLessa Team 10:

Paul Hawes, Wagner Lessa, Sebastian Prieto, Ganga Singh, Eduardo Soto, Juan Soto.

Messi led Argentina to win the 2022 FIFA World Cup. He made a huge contribution to the team's win with 7 goals, 3 assists, and the Golden Ball award. Moreover, before he left PSG, he scored 21 goals and 20 assists across 41 matches across all competitions in the 22/23 season. After that, he moved to Inter Miami and helped the team to win with the miracle many times.

Messi won the World Cup, was the best player in the tournament , had 62+ goal contributions. He also scored in every knockout round of the tournament and solidified his career as the GOAT of football.