Resolves YES as soon as Manifold reaches a 7-day average of at least 5000 DAU (daily active users).
Resolves NO if that threshold has not been reached on or before September 1st 2023.
The data source will be the Manifold stats page! For reference, Manifold DAU as of this market's creation is ~1100 with a peak of 1971.
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ490 | |
| 2 | Ṁ141 | |
| 3 | Ṁ121 | |
| 4 | Ṁ81 | |
| 5 | Ṁ78 |
The LK-99 buzz is behind us for now: https://analytics.umami.is/share/ARwUIC9GWLNyowjq/Manifold%20Markets
Twenty-eight days is a short timespan to achieve a 5k 7-day avg DAU.
I expect the numbers to stabilize between 2k and 3k.
Previous massive influxes have never been followed by sustained organic growth, and I'm not sure something has changed.
5K could be breached if another LK-99-type event happens. (Or if LK-99 turns out to be real in August? With NYT profiles like: The Website that predicted LK-99 before anyone else, idk)