Will Kevin McCarthy remain Speaker through Oct 15?

110

1.3K

Ṁ83K

Ṁ1.9K

resolved Oct 3

Resolved

ALL

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kevin McCarthy remains Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives without interruption from September 13 through October 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Kevin McCarthy or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

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27 Comments

84 Holders

502 Trades

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predicted NO

IT'S JOEVER KEVIN

predicted NO

Lol. Funniest political event of the year. Maybe be topped later today.

bought Ṁ300 of NO

7/5 keep huffing believers

predicted NO

8/5*

predicted NO

8/4*

sold Ṁ54 of NO

LOL

sold Ṁ468 of NO

Thank you Mr. McCarthy.

Your patriotic work to avert a shutdown costed me 700 mana, but your sacrifice made me 500 back.

You'll be remembered as a small piece of my brier score that is overall neutral, but caused some Volatility.

🫡

predicted NO

McCarthy should take Gaetz out back and beat the shit out of him while he still has immunity. I hate Kevin McCarthy, but Matt Gaetz needs a spanking for forgetting his place. Any other Speaker in history would be saved from the humiliation. This is more embarrassing than a shutdown ever could have been.

bought Ṁ20 of YES

@BTE LMAO

predicted NO

@SemioticRivalry is Scalise even in the District? Or is he in Louisiana? Can the next person elected speaker demand changes to the rules governing the 118th Congress and eliminate this single vote nonsense. Like has this ever happened before in the history of the Congress? A single member vacating the chair with no clear or even interested successor???

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@BTE

predicted NO

@Joshua He might kick his own ass tonight when he gets home.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@Joshua Lmaooo

bought Ṁ1,000 of NO

@SemioticRivalry I never thought I would say this again but Newt is right about big hair, he needs to be expelled before the house adjourns.

bought Ṁ0 of YES

@BTE I'm pretty sure they'd get every democratic vote and the special election would elect a republican so why not

sold Ṁ50 of YES

Ugh I misunderstood the earlier CSPAN vote and did my math wrong and thought somehow McCarthy could survive 8 votes against, due to the number of dem absences, but actually he can only survive 5 or 6. Lost like 300 mana.

predicted NO

@BenjaminShindel That is terrible. Please let me know if you need a mana loan so your family does not go hungry.

predicted YES

https://polymarket.com/event/will-kevin-mccarthy-remain-speaker-through

this market is very differently priced

Polymarket | Will Kevin McCarthy remain Speaker through.....

Polymarket | t

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@MarcusAbramovitch Look at the order book, it’s basically illiquid

bought Ṁ55 of YES

@EliLifland a few minutes ago, you could have bought NO at 50c

predicted NO

@MarcusAbramovitch I think it’s most informative to look at activity here

predicted YES

@EliLifland

predicted YES

predicted NO

@EliLifland Yes but not much, and before that people sold yes at 15c or something

predicted NO

@EliLifland It’s all very low volume, like $5

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@EliLifland and now that this is over, i'll share the much more thickly traded polymarket, which was sufficient but not necessary to resolve this market, and was trading close to this market for the most part.

https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-first-vote-to-oust-mccarthy-succeed/will-the-first-vote-to-oust-mccarthy-succeed