Will GPT-5 be released before December 31st, 2023?
54
1kṀ58k
resolved Dec 30
Resolved
NO

Screenshots/announcements/demos without anyone outside OpenAI able to access them will not count.
Any release before the end of December 31st (EST) counts (API, Playground only, etc.).

Release must be publicly announced, rumors or anecdotes don't count.
Resolution based on my best judgment, thus I won't bet.

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Longer timeline:

https://manifold.markets/RutgerDeMaeyer/how-many-pageviews-will-timelessmyt?r=UnV0Z2VyRGVNYWV5ZXI

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https://manifold.markets/JonasVollmer/will-gpt5-be-announced-by-the-end-o

Will GPT-5 be announced by the end of 2023?
4% chance. This market resolves the same way as this market: https://kalshi.com/markets/gpt5/gpt5-creation ”(…) OpenAI has announced the creation of a new large language model named GPT-5. A large language model by another name (such as GPT-4.9999), or which is referred to as a spiritual successor…

Rumor mill says that's about when they're going to start training. See this market for 4.5, which might plausibly be ready by then.

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