Soon after ChatGPT was released, the immense popularity made them focus on finding optimizations and OpenAI quickly found a "90% savings" which was reflected in the API pricing with "gpt-3.5-turbo".

The rumor mill says "September or October 2023", so I've dated this market in the middle to approximate 50%.

Resolves YES if a model is announced named "GPT 4.5" before October 2023, regardless of if it's faster, cheaper, or better.

Resolves PROB to the discount to current price of GPT-4's output tokens if optimizations are made to GPT-4 or a new GPT-4 model is released without naming it "GPT-4.5". Smaller context size is allowed.

Resolves NO if no announcement of a new name or price discounts are made.