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📢Resolved to N/A : Vague criteria & Abandoned account

@MarcMayerson on what timeframe? By end of year, as suggested by the close date? Or a longer timeframe (in which case you may wich to extend the market close date)?

I think, in theory, the NRA should advocate for hand held laser weapons (such a weapon would be roughly equivalent to a hand gun but would presumably be less lethal), however the question does assume premise that "the era of hand-held laser weapons capable of burning holes through flesh is in our future", which I find unlikely. Mainly because I think that the power supply of such a weapon would be too large (and/or expensive) for it to be commercially feasible:
https://manifold.markets/DanielParker/the-era-of-handheld-laser-weapons-c

Is the era of hand-held laser weapons capable of burning holes through flesh in our future (i.e. before 2043)?

33% chance. This will resolve to YES if hand-held laser weapons are available commercially (including if they are restricted to the military) before the end of 2043. For this purpose, a weapon would need to be capable of causing second degree burns at a distance of at least 50 yards in order to count. A single person would need to be able to comfortably carry both the weapon and its power supply. See https://manifold.markets/MarcMayerson/will-the-nra-advocate-the-second-am

Also note that any laser weapon which is capable of burning flesh would be presumptively banned internationally based on the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protocol_on_Blinding_Laser_Weapons because any laser capable of burning flesh would certainly be capable of blinding people.

I don't understand why the international consensus is that trying to blind your enemies is somehow worse than trying to kill them, but it would probably be bad optics (pun intended) for the NRA to advocate for weapons which violate international law (especially since the advocacy would probably need to come before such weapons are actually produced).