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MANIFOLD
🇳🇴NOR vs 🇬🇧ENG [World Cup '26]
499
Ṁ10kṀ490k
resolved Jul 11
⚽ Norway 1–0
+19%
on
⚽ England 1–1
↩️ VAR: Norway goal disallowed → 1–1
-15.7%
on
⚽ Norway 2–1
⚽ England 1–2
100%99.4%
🇬🇧 England
0.6%
🇳🇴 Norway

Norway vs England · QF · Kickoff Sat, 11 Jul 2026 21:00:00 UTC

Resolves to the advancing team

This market resolves automatically after the match concludes based on official results.

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Created and managed by @ManifoldSports

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I think of sports as being on a spectrum of "Most to Least bullshit" with the Most end being NFL and the Least end being a tie between Lawn Tennis and Super Smash Brothers Melee For The Nintendo GameCube

...but each World Cup game I watch threatens to dethrone the NFL

ggs

One of the best things about football is the fact that many matches are decided by subjective calls made by biased people

If we didn't want it to be this way we'd be watching Wimbledon

bought Ṁ250 NO

Didn't expect to see live footage of Sir David Beckham passing stool, but there it was

@JohnGeorgeSalter wait what? Please elaborate XD

@TheAllMemeingEye as someone who experiences Adversarial Gastrointestinal Adventures, the series of facial expressions Becks made at the time were pretty relatable

Rigged BS. Refs hate Norway

@JaundicedBaboon yes, it's called Football

I love how they go a goal down first just so I can get better odds lmao

bought Ṁ500 NO

I may have failed to account for the referee being a frenchman

@JohnGeorgeSalter respect to him for being less than maximally French

bought Ṁ100 YES

Norway attacking :eyes:

bought Ṁ50 NO

England has much higher possession rn

@Qubits only 16 minutes in, much room to change though

Why is there late-breaking movement against Norway?

@bens sports algo recalibrates when the starting lineup becomes visible, in this case maybe because Nusa is not starting?

bought Ṁ500 NO

@bens because it's coming home

opened a Ṁ3,500 NO at 37% order

@Jessef0226 I just like the game.

bought Ṁ1,970 YES

I believe in halaand gng👉👈🥹

Market currently at 65% England, 35% Norway. I'll note that hours before the match Manifold had Brazil at 70% ...

breaking news: 70% probability events don’t happen three times out of ten

@RedzoneITG what a shocker, didn't see that coming

@MartinSundhaug Although I agree with the 70% comment above, I would note that some of these world cup markets have very strange odds to me. It’s like they’re being bet on by people who have an outdated view of modern football, who just know Brazil and France and Italy (lol) and Argentina and Germany are footballing nations.

I think Norway has been pretty undervalued in every market, apart from maybe this one, as has Egypt and Belgium (although in the previous matches case I guess it could just be USians betting on the US)

@JayDH I mean you can make a lot of money then :)