This market resolves based on the 538 polling average at the beginning of July. This market resolves one week into July to allow time for the average to have been updated.

If the 538 average as of July 8th shows Trump as having been in the lead on July 1st, this market resolves YES. In all other scenarios, this market resolves NO.

As of market creation, Trump is ahead by 3.5 points:

See also:

• The Manifold Politics Forecast

• The Swing State Dashboard

• The Polling Dashboard