This market resolves YES if Tennessee Amendment 2 (Proposed amendment to Article II, Section 28 (prohibit state property tax)) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule:

Two prongs (Tenn. Const. art. XI §3): (1) more YES than NO; (2) YES votes > half of all votes cast for governor. YES must exceed 50% of total gubernatorial votes; upheld in George v. Hargett (6th Cir. 2018).

Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented.

What the votes mean (official summary):

• YES: Constitution bars any state-level property tax.

• NO: Art. II §28 unchanged; no constitutional ban on a state property tax.

Results: resolves on the result certified by Tennessee Secretary of State / State Election Commission (statewide canvass). It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls.

No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A.

Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution.

Starting probability: 50% is a neutral starting seed, not a forecast.

Official source: https://sos.tn.gov/elections/announcements/2026-proposed-constitutional-amendments