This will resolve YES if RFK Jr. says he’s leaving the race, and encourages his voters to vote for Trump instead of him, regardless of whether his name appears on ballots.
Otherwise, resolves NO on September 1st, 2024.
1,000
3.00RFK has not dropped out.
Please update priors.
https://x.com/sheislaurenlee/status/1828558560843723221?t=bfguMz8JXNebGITG3W-uJw&s=19
He explicitly states he has not terminated his candidacy and expresses a non-zero expectation of him actually winning. Would RFK not be the most reliable arbitrater of his own position? Isn't that what this is a prediction of?
https://x.com/sheislaurenlee/status/1828558560843723221?t=XCj6CxwbPAyh7oKxRMZ2ZA&s=19
@Krantz you seem to be misunderstanding our discussion. We are claiming that suspending a campaign is within the definition of dropping out. You seem to be claiming that he didn't terminate his campaign, and, therefore, didn't drop out...? Then just state your position clearly, are you saying that dropping out is defined solely as terminating a campaign? If so, we disagree
@PeterNjeim I understand your discussion. It sounds like you (the majority of commenters here) are claiming to be a more authoritive source of what RFK's intentions are, then RFK himself.
Did you understand RFK's discussion?
I'm not the one claiming RFK is still in the race, he is.
https://x.com/sheislaurenlee/status/1828558560843723221?t=oWE2mcgmqiz8cZRk0RKWyQ&s=19
My claim is that this proposition is true.
P1. If RFK says he has not dropped out of the race, then he has not dropped out of the race.
If you disagree with whether he has said this, then I can accept that and try to find more evidence of him specifically uttering the words 'I have not dropped out of the race.'.
If you deny P1 explicitly, as in 'nothing RFK says could change your mind on whether he has dropped out', that really makes me doubt the integrity of this prediction.
@ManifoldPolitics Dr. Phil clarifies this at the beginning of this interview.
'You have suspended your campaign. You haven't dropped out, but you've suspended your campaign.'
https://x.com/RobertKennedyJr/status/1829170610133668254?t=7GtHASJ9NIXf0xjFpCEggg&s=19
@Krantz correct, RFK Jr. isnt the arbiter of the English language. Similar to the creator of the GIF file format saying it's pronounced as "jif", it doesn't change how most people pronounce it. This is a common problem with arguments online, where someone believes that because a primary source said something, it must be true or trump other sources, for example: "the person who made this theory said: '<thing that most modern subscribers to the theory disagree with>'".
For example, in this comment, I respond to someone claiming that because an RFK campaign spokesperson said he didn't endorse Trump, that therefore he didn't endorse Trump. Luckily for us, the verb "endorse" has a commonly accepted definition, and his actions satisfied the definition, so no matter what his campaign said, it didn't change reality.
It's the same thing here, no matter what he, some journalists, or his campaign says, the term "drop out" in this context is satisfied by a campaign suspension
Evidence that our decision to include campaign suspensions in the definition of "drop out" is valid:
@PeterNjeim I'm not claiming that RFK is the arbiter of language. I'm claiming he is the arbitrater of whether he is still trying to win the Presidency, which according to him, he is.
If you want to vote on a language for which it is true that a person can still be trying to win the Presidency after dropping out, you are free to do so. Just seems absurd to me. Seems like the media either mispoke or is intentionally trying to lead people to believe that he doesn't want them to vote for him (so they won't).
He only wants to defer his vote to Trump in 10 states. If we wanted to say 'RFK has dropped out in 10 states' and consider this 1/5th resolved, that would make more sense. However, there are 40 states he is highly encouraging people to vote for him in. If enough people voted for him (as he would like for them to do) he could win enough electoral votes to win the Presidency (which he wants).
@Krantz He admitted that he isn't dropping out in states that don't change the election result. His tiny comment about a sliver of chance of winning is just hyping up the base. He's said many times that's he's throwing his support behind Trump, and has campaigned with him. It is absurd to claim that someone campaigning on behalf of a more popular candidate secretly is still running to win the race. He has threw his support behind Trump, he has suspended his campaign, he has attempted to remove his name from the ballot in critical states that he desires Trump to win in, he has dropped out
@Krantz also, seriously? The conspiracy theory nonsense of the entire media lying about him dropping out? Left wing outlets, right wing ones, regional ones, international ones, and bloggers? This is a joke
@Krantz Also, he can't win enough electoral votes, it's literally impossible. His "path" to victory requires a contingent election. It is absolutely impossible for him to win: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/08/23/rfk-jr-suspends-his-campaign-with-an-appropriately-bizarre-theory
@Krantz Also, when you took the time to read the comment I linked, you decided to like a few comments. Looks like you don't know what you're liking because you liked a comment that disagreed with the initial comment, which you also liked, oops
.
@TallUntidyGothGF it could be, but in this case I'm almost sure that he liked it because the comment didn't specify who he thought "got it", and it seemed like a reply to the OP and not me. I think the accidental like theory is less plausible than my one
“Mr. Kennedy has not endorsed president Trump,” RFK campaign spokesperson Stefanie Spear said in a statement to the Washington Post.
Primary source doesn't matter, that very WaPo article says at the top that RFK is supporting Trump