This question resolves based on the head-to-head margin in the upcoming NYT/Siena poll of Pennsylvania.
It resolves YES if the upcoming NYT/Siena poll shows Harris leading in the head-to-head margin, or resolves NO if Trump is leading.
This question resolves 50% if the NYT shows the head-to-head margin as exactly tied. This includes if one candidate was ahead by a fraction of a percent, but the NYT rounds to the nearest percent. However, if the headline describes them as "neck-and-neck" but Harris is 1% ahead, this question will still resolve to YES.
If no NYT/Siena poll of likely voters in Pennsylvania is released before October 1st, 2024 then this question will resolve to 50%.
Context:
1,000
3.00So... this came out this morning at 5.04 AM eastern
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/19/us/politics/harris-trump-times-siena-poll-pennsylvania.html
Two clarifying questions:
1) Is this based on the head-to-head, or with third parties?
2) In addition to showing Trump % and Harris %, they also show a Margin which is based on unrounded vote shares. So which would you use to resolve?
Example: In the last national poll, in the head-to-head, Harris had 47%, Trump had 48%, but the Margin was Trump +2: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/09/08/us/politics/times-siena-poll-likely-electorate-crosstabs.html
So you could imagine in the PA poll, it might be Harris 48%, Trump 48%, and then the Margin could be Harris +1, Tied, or Trump +1. So would this question resolve to 50% in all three cases? Or only if the Margin is shown as Tied?
@ManifoldPolitics Also going to send Agabara 5000 mana as a bounty for pointing out important resolution details.