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MANIFOLD
Will Georgia Amendment 1 (conservation use acreage limit increase) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?
1
Ṁ1kṀ3
Nov 4
88%
chance

This market resolves YES if Georgia Amendment 1 (Increases the maximum qualifying acreage for assessment and taxation as bona fide conservation use property.) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule:

Majority of votes cast on the question (Ga. Const. art. X, §I, ¶II: 'ratified by a majority of the electors qualified to vote for members of the General Assembly voting thereon')

Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented.

What the votes mean (official summary):

  • YES: Up to 4,000 acres of a single owner's farm/timber land may qualify for conservation use assessment.

  • NO: The 2,000-acre limit stays.

Results: resolves on the result certified by Georgia Secretary of State certifies; Governor proclaims ratified amendments. It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls.

No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A.

Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution.

Starting probability: 50% is a neutral starting seed, not a forecast.

Official source: https://sos.ga.gov/sites/default/files/2026-09/2026%20Constitutional%20Summaries%20booklet%20FINAL.pdf

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