Resolution will be based on the RCP 2-way polling average between Trump and his opponent in the US presidential election.
As of market creation Trump is ahead by 1.1%, 44.9 to 43.8. He has had the lead since September 2023.
If Biden ceases to be the presumed Democratic Party nominee, the average against the actual Democratic Party nominee will be used once that nominee is determined. If someone besides Donald Trump becomes the presumed Republican Party nominee before he loses the lead, this market will resolve N/A.
If Trump is ever behind in the RCP polling average for 14 consecutive days before November 5th, this market resolves Yes. Otherwise, it resolves No.
You can find more markets like this on the Political Polling Dashboard.
/ManifoldPolitics/will-donald-trump-ever-lose-his-lea-4db933701e15
/ManifoldPolitics/will-donald-trump-ever-lose-his-lea-c5811b268c10
1,000
3.00
@ManifoldPolitics @Joshua Could you resolve YES please?
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
@ManifoldPolitics Can you update the link in the description to point to the Trump vs Harris polls? https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
For some context, let's look at past cycles.
Here's McCain and Obama in 2008:
Here's Romney and Obama in 2012:
Here's Trump and Clinton in 2016:
And here's Trump and Biden in 2020:
In most cases, the candidate in the lead mostly stays in the lead.
The longest reversal I could find is McCain taking the lead from January 13th to February 2nd, 20 days total. He also took the lead from September 6th to September 15th, 9 days.
Romney taking the lead for 9 days from October 8th to October 17th, lost the lead from the 18th to the 20th, then took the lead again for 9 days from the 21st to the 30th.
Trump only ever lead Clinton for a day or two at a time, despite eventually outperforming the polls and winning. Trump never took the lead over Biden, despite again outperforming the polls.
Now, if you go back to Bush vs Kerry, you'll see a much more dynamic race:
Do traders think this election is more like 2004 than 2008-2020?
@ManifoldPolitics And if this race is going to look like 2004, perhaps Biden might lead for an entire month uninterrupted? A new market for that:
@ManifoldPolitics Trump’s lead is not very large, and we haven’t really seen Trump lead in the polls during an actual campaign season that’s not a primary.