Resolution will be based on the RCP 2-way polling average between Trump and his opponent in the US presidential election, currently presumed to be Joe Biden. As of market creation Trump is ahead by 1.1%, 44.9 to 43.8. He has had the lead since September 2023.
If Biden ceases to be the presumed Democratic Party nominee, the average against the actual Democratic Party nominee will be used once that nominee is determined. If someone besides Donald Trump becomes the presumed Republican Party nominee before he loses the lead, this market will resolve N/A.
If Trump is ever behind in the RCP polling average for 28 consecutive days before November 5th, this market resolves Yes. Otherwise, it resolves No.
Version of this market for two weeks:
1,000
3.00
@Joshua should weigh in on this, but I think our past agreement on these markets was that the clock can't start until Kamala is the official nominee.
@benshindel Thanks, I thought there was a reason that the markets for that are not resolved yet? For example: Who will be the Democratic Party presidential nominee? | Manifold.
it's only official as of today, resolutions take a moment Joshua will get to it.
Well with the original 2 weeks market at 70% and this one still heading down at 30%, I suppose I'll make one more for 3 weeks.
/ManifoldPolitics/will-donald-trump-ever-lose-his-lea-4db933701e15