Resolution will be based on the RCP 2-way polling average between Trump and his opponent in the US presidential election, currently presumed to be Joe Biden. As of market creation Trump is ahead by 1.1%, 44.9 to 43.8. He has had the lead since September 2023.

If Biden ceases to be the presumed Democratic Party nominee, the average against the actual Democratic Party nominee will be used once that nominee is determined. If someone besides Donald Trump becomes the presumed Republican Party nominee before he loses the lead, this market will resolve N/A.

If Trump is ever behind in the RCP polling average for 28 consecutive days before November 5th, this market resolves Yes. Otherwise, it resolves No.

Version of this market for two weeks:

/ManifoldPolitics/will-donald-trump-ever-lose-his-lea