The NY Times/Sienna poll is often considered to be the gold standard of national polling. They are at the top of 538's pollster rankings, with a perfect 3 star score. Their latest poll shows Trump ahead of Biden by 4 points nationally.
Their previous poll in December 2023 showed Biden ahead by 2 points , and before that it was a tie in July of 2023, and before that Trump was ahead by 1 point in October of 2022.
If Trump beats Biden in the next released national Times/Sienna poll, this market resolves YES. If Biden is tied with or ahead of Trump, this market resolves NO.
See also: /ManifoldPolitics/will-donald-trump-beat-joe-biden-in
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Cross-Tabs: April 2024 Times/Siena Poll of the Likely Electorate - The New York Times
Donald Trump leads Joe Biden, 47 percent to 46 percent, among the likely electorate.