The NY Times/Sienna poll is often considered to be the gold standard of national polling. They are at the top of 538's pollster rankings, with a perfect 3 star score. Their latest poll shows Trump ahead of Biden by 4 points nationally.

Their previous poll in December 2023 showed Biden ahead by 2 points , and before that it was a tie in July of 2023, and before that Trump was ahead by 1 point in October of 2022.

If Trump beats Biden in every national Times/Sienna poll from March until election day, this market resolves yes. If Biden is ever tied or ahead of Trump, this market resolves No.

See also: /ManifoldPolitics/will-donald-trump-beat-joe-biden-in-6a298ba85678
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