This market resolves YES if Colorado Proposition 135 (Prohibit Certain Surgeries on Minors) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule:

Simple majority of votes cast on the measure (statutory; SOS/Blue Book: 'Passes with a majority vote')

Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented.

What the votes mean (official summary):

• YES: Bans these surgeries on minors and bars government funds or insurance from paying (Blue Book).

• NO: Keeps current law protecting access and allowing insurance coverage (Blue Book).

Results: resolves on the result certified by Colorado Secretary of State (official statewide canvass); takes effect on Governor's proclamation. It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls.

No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A.

Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution.

Starting probability: 50% is a neutral starting seed, not a forecast.

Official source: https://leg.colorado.gov/ballots/prohibit-surgery-on-minors-in-response-to-perception-of-sex-or-gender-2/files/blue-book