Will any House Republican directly threaten to remove Mike Johnson as Speaker, before April?
resolved Mar 22

Tensions are high in the US Capitol, the Speaker of the House between a rock and a hard place trying to prevent a government shutdown.

When this happened in October, then-speaker Kevin McCarthy defied the most conservative members of his party and worked with Democrats to pass funding for the federal government. Shortly after, there was a "motion to vacate the chair", a vote which removed Kevin McCarthy from power. Under the current rules any single member of the House can call for such a vote.

Representatives Marjorie Taylor Green and Chip Roy said in January that removing Johnson was "on the table". But so far, no one has made the threat directly.

If any Republican member of the House does directly and publicly threaten Johnson with a motion to vacate before April, this market resolves Yes. Proof must be posted in the comments, and it must be an overt threat from a named Republican Member. An implied threat, like saying it's on the table, is not enough.

If no such threat is made before April 1st, this market resolves No.

Note that these resolution rules may be updated to best reflect the spirit of the question, please leave a comment if you have any suggestions for doing so.

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The market is confident someone will the threat, so the next question is: Will they make good on it?

It seems things aren't going well so far:


New today from The Hill:

While Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has moved deftly to avoid a shutdown since taking the gavel in October, restive conservatives are losing patience with his willingness to cut budget deals across the aisle. And some observers on Capitol Hill are already warning that the current fight is the greatest shutdown threat of this Congress. 

“I’m worried. Of all the scares we’ve had since the last fiscal year, I think this is going to be the scariest. I think we could be in a world of hurt,” said a Senate GOP aide. “I don’t know if it’ll be a partial or a full, but I think the chances of a shutdown are the highest we’ve had this fiscal year.” 

If Johnson does get removed from power, we've got a market on who replaces him:


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