Who would win the US Presidential Election, if they were the Democratic Party nominee in 2024? [More Answers]
94
แน€26k
Nov 11
54%
Kamala Harris
Resolved
N/A
Michelle Obama
Resolved
N/A
Pete Buttigieg
Resolved
N/A
Andy Beshear
Resolved
N/A
Josh Shapiro
Resolved
N/A
Jared Polis
Resolved
N/A
Raphael Warnock
Resolved
N/A
Gretchen Whitmer
Resolved
N/A
Gavin Newsom
Resolved
N/A
Hakeem Jeffries
Resolved
N/A
J. B. Pritzker
Resolved
N/A
Joe Biden

An option resolves Yes if that person becomes the 2024 Democratic Party nominee and wins the presidential election.

An option resolves No if that person becomes the 2024 Democratic Party nominee and loses the presidential election.

An option resolves N/A if that person is not the 2024 Democratic Party nominee.

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@mods n/a all but harris

Can you add more of the weirder options? Mitt Romney, RFK, Bernie Sanders, AOC, etc.

I'd love to see RFK as an option here.

bought แน€50 Michelle Obama YES

Can we see a progressive on this list? Maybe Bernie, AOC, Ro Khanna...

You don't need to add them all, but I'm curious how one would stack up.

Data For Progress ran a poll the day after the debate:
In a one-on-one matchup against Trump, Whitmer and Booker are down 2 percentage points, while Biden, Harris, Newsom, Pritzker, Buttigieg, Shapiro, and Klobuchar are all down 3 points.


And for net favorability you have Booker (+6), Klobuchar (+5), Buttigieg (+2), Shapiro (+2), Whitmer (+1), Pritzker (-3), Harris (-7), Newsom (-9), and Biden (-10)

this market is a dumb stonk

opened a แน€1,000 Andy Beshear NO at 75% order

@ManifoldPolitics this market deserves more liquidity!

Somewhat telling that most often talked about replacements are also the ones who are lowest on this market

Genius, the only one doing worse than Joe is Kamala

opened a แน€1,000 J. B. Pritzker NO at 41% order

Just put down 10k in limit orders on this really crucial market!

sold แน€56 J. B. Pritzker NO

@ManifoldPolitics Maybe add Roy Cooper to this?

bought แน€100 Gavin Newsom NO

Very decision-relevant market that I wish had more traders