Who would win the US Presidential Election, if they were the Republican Party nominee in 2024?

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Ṁ6866

resolved Nov 6

Resolved

N/A

Greg Abbott

Resolved

N/A

Glenn Youngkin

Resolved

N/A

Ron Desantis

Resolved

N/A

Nikki Haley

Resolved

YES

Donald Trump

An option resolves Yes if that person becomes the 2024 Republican Party nominee and wins the presidential election.

An option resolves No if that person becomes the 2024 Republican Party nominee and loses the presidential election.

An option resolves N/A if that person is not the 2024 Republican Party nominee.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

#Democratic Party

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@mods n/a all but trump

This question could benefit from a new type of market where you could make a bet on all options for the cost of one. As it is now, if you want to make a 10 mana bet on all options, you have to invest 50 mana, even though you are guaranteed to get 40 back.

@FH7979e This is a problem with conditional markets in general. There are proposed solutions in the works, hopefully something will be implemented soon so that election markets can take advantage of it

This is a problem with conditional markets in general.

I know. I think that being able to bet on all sides of a condition without paying multiple times would be a pretty good solution.

It would even be possible to make a system where you can pay for a conditional bet in shares of the condition (e.g. bet on Trump being nominated and then use the YES shares to bet on conditional Trump election). However, it might be hard to create such a system without complicating the UI too much.

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