Resolves to whoever is selected as the United States Republican Party nominee for President at the 2024 Republican National Convention
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At current odds even if you think the chances of a successful Trump assassination are only 5%, you should bet 4% of your mana on "No"
Voting "No" on Trump because the last assassination attempt is evidence we should expect more than 2% odds a successful one will happen.
The chance that another potential assassin will even have a chance to take shots at Trump before the RNC is probably 1 in 1000, tops
@BenjaminIkuta I agree with this. Everyone is treating Haley as if she's the obvious winner if something happens to Trump, but I think DeSantis would almost surely win in that case. If Trump died or got disqualified or something similar, his primary voters would be going to him as their second choice, not Haley.
@PlasmaBallin Okay, thinking about this more, I guess maybe if Trump dies right before the election, there isn't time to get a replacement in, for practical reasons, and then Haley wins just because she's the only one still running? Idk the mechanics of the election well enough to know exactly how that would work.
@BenjaminIkuta My previous comment had bad timing. I made it less than a day before DeSantis dropped out. Now I think Haley would win if something happened to Trump, since she's the only other major candidate left.
@PlasmaBallin I mean, if Trump died, would it be possible for DeSantis to un-drop out or something, or would it be procedurally impossible for anyone but her to get the votes?
@BenjaminIkuta I don't know for sure what would happen, since it's unprecedented. I think he would be allowed to come back into the race, but it would probably be difficult to do so because everyone who was working for his campaign has presumably now disbanded, so he would have to rebuild almost from scratch. It would also be very hard for him to win if Haley already had delegates from a bunch of early states and DeSantis didn't.
Maybe if Haley drops out after losing New Hampshire, then he would be able to get back into the race since there would be no other major candidates anyway.
@BenjaminIkuta I don't think that most state party electors have a legal duty to vote for the person their state chose.
Isn't this just a duplicate of the older market? What makes this better and not just a duplicate of
/PC/who-will-be-the-republican-presiden-7bf11c066154
I think this should be unsubsidized and traders encouraged to trade on the main market.