Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?
Basic
373
231k
resolved Jul 15
100%99.0%
Donald Trump
0.0%
Ron DeSantis
0.9%
Nikki Haley
0.0%Other

Resolves to whoever is selected as the United States Republican Party nominee for President at the 2024 Republican National Convention

Get Ṁ600 play money

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@Joshua Do you know why the election page still shows this at 99% even after it resolved?

Hmm not sure. I imagine they'll just take it down soon.

Oh, I guess I'm supposed to see that it resolved based on the outline. But it still looks a little weird.

At current odds even if you think the chances of a successful Trump assassination are only 5%, you should bet 4% of your mana on "No"

Voting "No" on Trump because the last assassination attempt is evidence we should expect more than 2% odds a successful one will happen.

bought Ṁ5,000 Donald Trump YES

The odds of a successful assassination are not 2%

They got a shot off and missed by an inch

Yes and now he's dead.

@MattF This market resolves on Thursday - I think it's unlikely someone will succeed before then.

opened a Ṁ100 Donald Trump YES at 99.0% order

The chance that another potential assassin will even have a chance to take shots at Trump before the RNC is probably 1 in 1000, tops

sold Ṁ57 Donald Trump YES

I am selling my investment before the value of Mana is decreased to a tenth of its current value on May 1 2024.

opened a Ṁ30 Nikki Haley NO at 10% order

@ooe133 how to cancel a limit order?

How could Nikki Haley possibly win?

@BenjaminIkuta What if Trump dies, or some other crazy thing?

@Tumbles Then I would expect a more Trump aligned candidate to replace him.

@BenjaminIkuta I agree with this. Everyone is treating Haley as if she's the obvious winner if something happens to Trump, but I think DeSantis would almost surely win in that case. If Trump died or got disqualified or something similar, his primary voters would be going to him as their second choice, not Haley.

@PlasmaBallin Okay, thinking about this more, I guess maybe if Trump dies right before the election, there isn't time to get a replacement in, for practical reasons, and then Haley wins just because she's the only one still running? Idk the mechanics of the election well enough to know exactly how that would work.

@BenjaminIkuta My previous comment had bad timing. I made it less than a day before DeSantis dropped out. Now I think Haley would win if something happened to Trump, since she's the only other major candidate left.

@PlasmaBallin I mean, if Trump died, would it be possible for DeSantis to un-drop out or something, or would it be procedurally impossible for anyone but her to get the votes?

@BenjaminIkuta I don't know for sure what would happen, since it's unprecedented. I think he would be allowed to come back into the race, but it would probably be difficult to do so because everyone who was working for his campaign has presumably now disbanded, so he would have to rebuild almost from scratch. It would also be very hard for him to win if Haley already had delegates from a bunch of early states and DeSantis didn't.

Maybe if Haley drops out after losing New Hampshire, then he would be able to get back into the race since there would be no other major candidates anyway.

@BenjaminIkuta I don't think that most state party electors have a legal duty to vote for the person their state chose.

Isn't this just a duplicate of the older market? What makes this better and not just a duplicate of

/PC/who-will-be-the-republican-presiden-7bf11c066154

I think this should be unsubsidized and traders encouraged to trade on the main market.

@EvanDaniel These questions are not the same. Take a look in the description.

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