🏅 Top traders

Shanahan announced, and speaking now! You can watch the speech at live with prop bets on manifold TV in the sidebar!

Or https://manifold.markets/tv/21

Suprise 😂 , @Joshua pls resolve

The mandate of heaven cannot lie

@beaver1 well done, sir

This is the man in charge of the VP search committee https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTLjKAHpV/

I still doubt he'll pick her, but this does not bode well for my position.

@houstonEuler Who do you think he'll pick?

@nmehndir No clue, I just don't know how Shanahan would add legitimacy to his campaign beyond providing financial support. Unless she has an incredibly captivating personality that commands attention from the media and attracts people from both sides of the aisle, it feels either a wasted pick, or for the purpose of hurting Biden.
For someone like her, who works with a lot of progressive organizations, I think she would catch a lot of heat if she was part of a ticket that was potentially helping Trump get re-elected.
It's possible her conviction is that strong, and she has enough money to not have to care about what other people think, but I just feel like she would be a surprising choice.

Aaron Rogers makes significantly more sense than Sergei Brin’s ex-wife whose greatest slash only accomplishment is getting divorced.

@BTE it's an insane list but Ventura makes more sense than the others, at least he has political experience

@shankypanky Interesting, though Ventura's worldview diverges sharply from RFK in many respects while Rogers is very much aligned with him. Lets look at one interesting example. Ventura ripped the anti-mask crowd during covid as pathetically unwilling to sacrifice for the greater good, saying Hitler would have won against today's America. "The country sacrificed in WWII. Do you think there would have been any argument over wearing a mask for the people of WWII? I’ll tell you if we behaved like we are right now, Hitler would have won," said Ventura. "He’d a won because this country won’t face any type of – they don't want to sacrifice." RFK Jr, by comparison, compared mask mandates to "Nazi experiments on Jews in concentration camps".

@BTE Interesting political analysis, but you forget one important detail which is that Nicole has the mandate of heaven

@BTE hm thanks for that. I based my comment solely on political experience and not more than that ofc.

well-chosen statements/articles for comparison here. I went searching for any signs of Ventura back tracking on his mask/vax statements and didn't see anything, curiously. he did introduce Kennedy at a rally in Feb but it seems like a lot of his attachment to him is because of his enduring love for JFK? and a rejection of the "duopoly of Republican and Democrat control in Washington."

RFK has shown up on a few podcasts in my rotation over the last ~1 year and between hearing those conversations and his general reputation, it would be really odd for him to select someone who isn't on strong record as rolling back his position on Covid mandates. I do think he has people in his circle who had unaligned Covid perspectives mid-pandemic but have changed their mind over time, so the 2020 stance isn't in and of itself much of a case against him. (Ventura was one of the popular picks after the shortlist came out, but RFK said indirectly that it's not him or Rogers?)

@shankypanky I also tried to find comments from Ventura on the vaccine and failed to dig up anything. I don’t think Kennedy has ruled anyone out but frankly I wouldn’t count him out as a possible Trump running mate himself. I think if Trump asked him he would be unable to resist because like having a chance of winning is 1000 percent better experience than not having a chance.

After doing some research, I firmly believe he backtracked to keep control over the commjnication timeline and maximize “blast impact” of the news

Funny how this market flipped in a few days lol.

Another development from RFK's campaign manager!

I do not believe her.

@Joshua troll party

@Joshua That's kind of the best free advertising move: "Please, speculate 10 more days and we're 10 more days in the headlines with our campaign for zero costs!!!!!!! Yippie!!!!!!!!"

@Lion Pretty much exactly my thoughts.

@Joshua I do like staying hedged though.

@Joshua Ok now I profit about the same in either scenario, time to stop paying attention lol

@Joshua What do you mean that you don’t believe her?

@GuyCohen I don't believe her non-confirmation, I think it's Nicole.

@Joshua i think it's a clever marketing effort. for the record, they got me big time. i got out minally scathed, thank you manifold.