Will eventually resolve to the party which won the popular vote for the race, as determined by the local, state, and ultimately federal governments.
In the case the race is called by the major news organizations, the market may optionally resolve early.
This market covers events up to and including Election Day, November 5: if Party A's candidate X wins the popular vote that day, but intervening events cause the next inaugurated Senator to be from Party B, the market will resolve to Party A.
If candidate X switches party affiliations, the switch will not affect the outcome if it is after the beginning of Election Day, local time.
Related questions
@SemioticRivalry How did you calculate the odds? Did you just take the mean and standard deviation of the historical outperformance and use a normal cdf?
@PlasmaBallin yes but just 2020 because ticket splitting has fallen way off in the last few cycles. r^2= 0.997 between pres and house results. The highest residual is 0.094 (MN-05) out of 404 races and Hogan would need ~0.15.
@SemioticRivalry For my part I just saw that the Republicans were trading at 25% on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/maryland-us-senate-election-winner?tid=1712782188122) and Good Judgment Open is at 38% (https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3339-who-will-win-the-us-senate-election-for-maryland-in-2024/crowd_forecast). But I definitely agree the Democrats are the heavy favourites.
@SemioticRivalry Pleasure doing business with you, I just left an even bigger limit order at 16%.
@SemioticRivalry I just left a limit order in case you also want out of this bet given the mana devaluation soon
@SemioticRivalry Cool! I just left another one each on the Democrat and Republican option
