Will eventually resolve to the party which won the popular vote for the race, as determined by the local, state, and ultimately federal governments.
In the case the race is called by the major news organizations, the market may optionally resolve early.
This market covers events up to and including Election Day, November 5: if Party A's candidate X wins the popular vote that day, but intervening events cause the next inaugurated Senator to be from Party B, the market will resolve to Party A.
If candidate X switches party affiliations, the switch will not affect the outcome if it is after the beginning of Election Day, local time.
1,000
3.00Analysis from the Manifold newsletter:
Maryland: Angela Alsobrooks (D) vs. Larry Hogan (R)
Democrat win chances per models: >99% (The Hill), >99% (538), 96% (Split Ticket)
Expert forecasts: Likely D (Cook), Likely D (Sabato), Likely D (Inside Elections)
Polling average (538): Alsobrooks+10
Election result in 2018, a Democratic wave year: D+35 (Cardin vs. Campbell)
Election result in 2012, amid Obama's reelection: D+30 (Cardin vs. Bongino)
Recent Maryland presidential election results: Biden+33 (2020), Clinton+26 (2016), Obama+26 (2012)
Manifolder commentary from 6 months ago:
SemioticRivalry: I tried to figure out the odds of an average congressional candidate outperforming Trump by >30 points while sharing his ballot and here's what I got:
Obviously Hogan is no generic R but my priors are pretty strong on this one.
Johnny Ten-Numbers: For my part I just saw that the Republicans were trading at 25% on Polymarket [Editor’s note: now only 10%] and Good Judgment Open is at 38%. But I definitely agree the Democrats are the heavy favourites.
SemioticRivalry: Jesus Christ himself could not win this seat running as a Republican
Conflux commentary:
Earlier in this post, I discussed a few examples of Democrats who are atypically popular in red states: Joe Manchin, Jon Tester, Sherrod Brown. This post concerns the reverse: Larry Hogan, the Republican nominee, who left office as governor of Maryland with a 77% approval rating. He initially won the governorship in 2014 in a close upset, then was reelected in 2018 by a R+12 margin. He’s governed as a moderate, and is not a Trump supporter.
There was some speculation that Hogan would run for president in 2024, but he endorsed Nikki Haley and went for Senate instead. Unfortunately for his chances, Senate races tend to be more nationalized, so his opponent, Angela Alsobrooks (who is the Executive of Prince George’s County) will likely win. But I think The Hill’s model (and SemioticRivalry, although his trading record is superior to mine…) to be a little overconfident. I’d give Hogan around a 5% chance to pull off the upset.
@SemioticRivalry How did you calculate the odds? Did you just take the mean and standard deviation of the historical outperformance and use a normal cdf?
@PlasmaBallin yes but just 2020 because ticket splitting has fallen way off in the last few cycles. r^2= 0.997 between pres and house results. The highest residual is 0.094 (MN-05) out of 404 races and Hogan would need ~0.15.
@SemioticRivalry For my part I just saw that the Republicans were trading at 25% on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/maryland-us-senate-election-winner?tid=1712782188122) and Good Judgment Open is at 38% (https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3339-who-will-win-the-us-senate-election-for-maryland-in-2024/crowd_forecast). But I definitely agree the Democrats are the heavy favourites.
@SemioticRivalry Pleasure doing business with you, I just left an even bigger limit order at 16%.
@SemioticRivalry I just left a limit order in case you also want out of this bet given the mana devaluation soon
@SemioticRivalry Cool! I just left another one each on the Democrat and Republican option
