Delaware US Senate Race: Lisa Blunt Rochester vs. Eric Hansen
Basic
8
Ṁ1426
resolved Nov 6
100%98%
Lisa Blunt Rochester (Democratic Party)
1.9%
Eric Hansen (Republican Party)
0.3%Other
  • Will eventually resolve to the party which won the popular vote for the race, as determined by the local, state, and ultimately federal governments.

  • In the case the race is called by the major news organizations, the market may optionally resolve early.

  • This market covers events up to and including Election Day, November 5: if Party A's candidate X wins the popular vote that day, but intervening events cause the next inaugurated Senator to be from Party B, the market will resolve to Party A.

    • If candidate X switches party affiliations, the switch will not affect the outcome if it is after the beginning of Election Day, local time.

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Analysis from the Manifold newsletter:

Delaware: Lisa Blunt Rochester (D) vs. Eric Hansen (R)

  • Democrat win chances (Manifold, 8 traders): 97%

  • Democrat win chances per models: >99% (The Hill), 98% (538), 100% (Split Ticket)

  • Expert forecasts: Solid D (Cook), Safe D (Sabato), Solid D (Inside Elections)

  • Polling average (538): Not enough polls

  • Election result in 2018, a Democratic wave year: D+22 (Carper vs. Arlett)

  • Election result in 2012, amid Obama's reelection: D+37 (Carper vs. Wade)

  • Recent Delaware presidential election results: Biden+19 (2020), Clinton+11 (2016), Obama+19 (2012)

Commentary:

In a state like Delaware, which has two Senate seats but only one House seat, which body is it more impressive to be elected to? It’s quite the philosophical quandary. Anyway, I needed something to fill the space — god it’s like 2am as I write this — because Delaware-at-large Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester will now become Delaware Sen. Lisa Blunt Rochester.

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