Will eventually resolve to the party which won the popular vote for the race, as determined by the local, state, and ultimately federal governments.
In the case the race is called by the major news organizations, the market may optionally resolve early.
This market covers events up to and including Election Day, November 5: if Party A's candidate X wins the popular vote that day, but intervening events cause the next inaugurated Senator to be from Party B, the market will resolve to Party A.
If candidate X switches party affiliations, the switch will not affect the outcome if it is after the beginning of Election Day, local time.
1,000
3.00Analysis from the Manifold newsletter:
Virginia: Sen. Tim Kaine (D) vs. Hung Cao (R)
Democrat win chances per models: 94% (The Hill), 98% (538), 96% (Split Ticket)
Expert forecasts: Solid D (Cook), Safe D (Sabato), Solid D (Inside Elections)
Polling average (538): Kaine+13
Election result in 2018, a Democratic wave year: D+16 (Kaine vs. Stewart)
Election result in 2012, amid Obama's reelection: D+6 (Kaine vs. Allen)
Recent Virginia presidential election results: Biden+10 (2020), Clinton+5 (2016), Obama+4 (2012)
Commentary:
Although a Republican did win the gubernatorial election in Virginia in 2021, the reelection of the popular Tim Kaine (Hillary Clinton’s running mate) against political newcomer Hung Cao should not prove too difficult.