Will eventually resolve to the party which won the popular vote for the race, as determined by the local, state, and ultimately federal governments.
In the case the race is called by the major news organizations, the market may optionally resolve early.
This market covers events up to and including Election Day, November 5: if Party A's candidate X wins the popular vote that day, but intervening events cause the next inaugurated Senator to be from Party B, the market will resolve to Party A.
If candidate X switches party affiliations, the switch will not affect the outcome if it is after the beginning of Election Day, local time.
Candidates will be considered as the party they're listed with on the ballot, regardless of how they plan to caucus in the Senate.
1,000
3.00Analysis in the Manifold newsletter:
Vermont: Sen. Bernie Sanders (independent, caucuses with Democrats) vs. Gerald Malloy (R)
Sanders win chances per models: >99% (The Hill), >99% (538), 100% (Split Ticket)
Expert forecasts: Solid I (Cook), Safe I (Sabato), Solid I (Inside Elections)
Polling average (538): Not enough polls
Election result in 2018, a Democratic wave year: I+40 (Sanders vs. Zupan)
Election result in 2012, amid Obama's reelection: I+46 (Sanders vs. MacGovern)
Recent Vermont presidential election results: Biden+35 (2020), Clinton+26 (2016), Obama+36 (2012)
Commentary:
Oh, fine, I can talk about independents for a second. Many people don’t realize that the Democrats’ 51-49 “majority” includes a record-high four of them: Bernie Sanders, Angus King, Kyrsten Sinema, and Joe Manchin. The last two were elected as Democrats but switched to Independent before retiring to send some kind of message, but Sanders and King were legitimately elected as independents: King sort of from the middle (getting both a Democratic and Republican challenger) and Sanders from the left (typically endorsed by the state Democratic forces). They almost always vote with Democrats, and they’re Democrats in all but name, but American elections are often vessels of tradition.
@MarkHamill i can't comment in that market because Isaac has me blocked lol. but I will be perfectly honest, I traded entirely based on this report
@SemioticRivalry I see, he had said he would be announcing something soon at the beginning of the year, which made me think retirement. But it looks like he’s actually waiting as long as possible to freeze the field.
@JaredHoffman Bernie is an independent (who has coincidentally also won the dem primary in every senate race he ran in). He is also 82, so...