Will eventually resolve to the party which won the popular vote for the race, as determined by the local, state, and ultimately federal governments.
In the case the race is called by the major news organizations, the market may optionally resolve early.
This market covers events up to and including Election Day, November 5: if Party A's candidate X wins the popular vote that day, but intervening events cause the next inaugurated Senator to be from Party B, the market will resolve to Party A.
If candidate X switches party affiliations, the switch will not affect the outcome if it is after the beginning of Election Day, local time.
Candidates will be considered as the party they're listed with on the ballot, regardless of how they plan to caucus in the Senate.
Related questions
@MarkHamill i can't comment in that market because Isaac has me blocked lol. but I will be perfectly honest, I traded entirely based on this report
@SemioticRivalry I see, he had said he would be announcing something soon at the beginning of the year, which made me think retirement. But it looks like he’s actually waiting as long as possible to freeze the field.
@JaredHoffman Bernie is an independent (who has coincidentally also won the dem primary in every senate race he ran in). He is also 82, so...