Minnesota US Senate Race 2024: Amy Klobuchar vs. Royce White
➕
Plus
32
Ṁ3142
Jan 1
95%
Amy Klobuchar (Democratic Party)
5%
Royce White (Republican Party)
0.1%
Other
  • Will eventually resolve to the party which won the popular vote for the race, as determined by the local, state, and ultimately federal governments.

  • In the case the race is called by the major news organizations, the market may optionally resolve early.

  • This market covers events up to and including Election Day, November 5: if Party A's candidate X wins the popular vote that day, but intervening events cause the next inaugurated Senator to be from Party B, the market will resolve to Party A.

    • If candidate X switches party affiliations, the switch will not affect the outcome if it is after the beginning of Election Day, local time.

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Analysis from the Manifold newsletter:

Minnesota: Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) vs. Royce White (R)

  • Democrat win chances (Manifold, 30 traders): 96%

  • Democrat win chances per models: 98% (The Hill), 98% (538), 97% (Split Ticket)

  • Expert forecasts: Solid D (Cook), Safe D (Sabato), Solid D (Inside Elections)

  • Polling average (538): Klobuchar+11

  • Election result in 2018, a Democratic wave year: D+24 (Klobuchar vs. Newberger)

  • Election result in 2012, amid Obama's reelection: D+35 (Klobuchar vs. Bills)

  • Recent Minnesota presidential election results: Biden+7 (2020), Clinton+1.5 (2016), Obama+8 (2012)

Commentary:

In another universe, Minnesota is a competitive state, but people forget that Amy Klobuchar is a really strong candidate in her home state.

bought Ṁ250 Amy Klobuchar (Democ... YES

Yeah, so Republicans aren't winning this one

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