New Mexico US Senate Race: Martin Heinrich vs. Nella Domenici
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Plus
18
Ṁ1802
Jan 1
95%
Martin Heinrich (Democratic Party)
5%
Nella Domenici (Republican Party)
0.2%
Other
  • Will eventually resolve to the party which won the popular vote for the race, as determined by the local, state, and ultimately federal governments.

  • In the case the race is called by the major news organizations, the market may optionally resolve early.

  • This market covers events up to and including Election Day, November 5: if Party A's candidate X wins the popular vote that day, but intervening events cause the next inaugurated Senator to be from Party B, the market will resolve to Party A.

    • If candidate X switches party affiliations, the switch will not affect the outcome if it is after the beginning of Election Day, local time.

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Analysis from the Manifold newsletter:

New Mexico: Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) vs. Nella Domenici (R)

  • Democrat win chances (Manifold, 16 traders): 95% (I bet up from 90%)

  • Democrat win chances per models: 95% (The Hill), 98% (538), 95% (Split Ticket)

  • Expert forecasts: Solid D (Cook), Safe D (Sabato), Solid D (Inside Elections)

  • Polling average (538): Heinrich+10

  • Election result in 2018, a Democratic wave year: D+24 (Heinrich vs. Rich)

  • Election result in 2012, amid Obama's reelection: D+6 (Heinrich vs. Wilson)

  • Recent New Mexico presidential election results: Biden+11 (2020), Clinton+8 (2016), Obama+10 (2012)

Commentary:

At 90%, I felt that this Manifold probability (in a state which went red in 2004 but has since trended blue) was just low due to laziness; a lot of these are, frankly. So I bet it up to match the models! I did leave some free alpha on the table in these other markets, though, as a present for reading this far.

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