Maine US Senate Race 2024: Angus King vs. Demi Kouzounas vs. David Costello
15
260Ṁ1712
resolved Nov 7
100%98.5%
Angus King (Independent)
0.6%
David Costello (Democratic Party)
0.6%
Demi Kouzounas (Republican Party)
0.2%Other
  • Will eventually resolve to the party which won the popular vote for the race, as determined by the local, state, and ultimately federal governments.

  • In the case the race is called by the major news organizations, the market may optionally resolve early.

  • This market covers events up to and including Election Day, November 5: if Party A's candidate X wins the popular vote that day, but intervening events cause the next inaugurated Senator to be from Party B, the market will resolve to Party A.

    • If candidate X switches party affiliations, the switch will not affect the outcome if it is after the beginning of Election Day, local time.

  • Candidates will be considered as the party they're listed with on the ballot, regardless of how they plan to caucus in the Senate.

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Analysis from the Manifold newsletter:


Maine: Angus King (independent, caucuses with Democrats) vs. David Costello (D) vs. Demitroula Kouzounas (R)

  • King win chances (Manifold, 13 traders): 96%

  • King win chances per models: >99% (The Hill), 95% (538), 99% (Split Ticket)

  • Expert forecasts: Solid I (Cook), Safe I (Sabato), Solid I (Inside Elections)

  • Polling average (538): Not enough polls

  • Election result in 2018, a Democratic wave year: I+19 (King vs. Brakey)

  • Election result in 2012, amid Obama's reelection: I+22 (King vs. Summers)

  • Recent Maine presidential election results: Biden+9 (2020), Clinton+3 (2016), Obama+15 (2012)

Commentary:

🐮👑

Why other?

@HenryBurton Angus King, the incumbent, is an independent

bought Ṁ190 YES

@HenryBurton Angus King is now his own option!

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