Which party will win the US Presidency in Nevada?
Democratic Party
Republican Party

Resolves after the AP calls the race.

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@gpt_news_headlines also, poly has 60/40 for dem/gop in nevada. https://polymarket.com/event/nevada-presidential-election-winner?tid=1714085675905 largely I think on the back of the above. Sharps are selling at 60c!

I can only assume that for the past 18 months a crack team of democratic party operatives appointed directly by Shadow President Gretchen Whitmer have been silently pulling strings across the nation to make sure that abortion rights initiatives are on the ballot in every swing state.

Now the dominos finally begin to fall.

@Joshua 60/40 seems excessive, but I think it puts the dems back in the race.

Nevada seemed like the least important of the major swing states because it has the fewest electoral votes, but it's now the tipping point state on Manifold's electoral map after the shift in AZ.

Trump lost Nevada by 2.5% in 2016 and 2020. Nevada is only going to trend blue-ward because of immigration. Polls use complicated adjustments for who's less likely to pick up the phone and who's more likely to actually vote. Regime shift could thow off those models. And there's a lot of time between now and the election for trump to embarrass himself and for all the mainstream media to propagandize for Biden.

@JonathanRay minorities, especially males, are moving towards Trump:

Source: https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/black-voters-show-signs-of-slipping-away-from-biden-in-2024-69ae78b0

Trump cannot embarrass himself more than he has done so far, his support is immune to embarrassment, however Biden has a lot of space for more gaffes.

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@JonathanRay latest poll from WSJ has Trump +4:

The source has other interesting information that goes against Democrats, for example voters in Nevada are less inclined to vote, which tends to benefit Republicans: https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/trump-biden-poll-swing-states-ad594acb

@egroj Doesn't lower turnout benefit Democrats now? Republicans no longer have the high-propensity base. Though maybe the Democratic base in Nevada is lower propensity than other states because they rely heavily on minority voters.

@PlasmaBallin I think Trump voters/fans are going to go vote no matter what, so I was assuming that the people uncertain to vote are overrepresented by Dems. But I don't have data to back-up the claim.

@PlasmaBallin The polls have been really weird this cycle when you look at crosstabs. It's stuff like Trump picking up substantial numbers of black voters and <25 voters. It's really bizarre.

@Najawin i think robocalls are so common nowadays that the vast majority of people have their phones set to block all unknown callers, which is probably a PITA for pollsters

@Najawin if you believe crosstabs in direction but not in magnitude (as you should) everything makes sense. it also fits with 2020 results and with primaries.

@SemioticRivalry I don't believe black people are trending towards Trump, no.

Also, no, things can't make sense without these magnitudes. These magnitudes are why Trump has the lead he does on Biden in these polls. You simply can't separate the two. If we believe that maybe Trump is picking up small amounts of support among these two demographics rather than large inroads, we simply don't believe that Trump is consistently +3-+5 above Biden, because that sort of gap requires us to care about the magnitudes of crosstabs. Otherwise we get a substantially closer race. (And, yes, yes, margin of error. But everyone is ignoring that in saying "Trump +4". If what we actually mean is "statistical dead heat", we should say that.)

@Najawin black voters shifted towards Trump by around 8 points in 2016 and then again in 2020 by around 6 points, whether you believe it or not. https://catalist.us/wh-national/ It doesn't seem hard for me to imagine that it will happen again. Crosstabs have Biden + 54 with black voters. If I had to place a guess, it'd probably be around ~Biden + 70, but that's still a loss of ten points relative to 2020. If you don't believe in crosstabs, please come bet with me.

things can definitely make sense even if you don't believe the magnitudes of black/youth shifts, because crosstabs also show massive shifts in Biden's direction. I also believe the direction (but not the magnitude) of the senior and white voter shift in Biden's favor. these shifts don't make eye catching headlines but are the reason that polls are even close right now. If you don't believe e.g. Biden's strength with seniors (which was a complete polling artifact in 2020) then Trump is being underestimated in the toplines by an entire percentage point.

The reason I believe in the direction of the shifts is because this is remarkably consistent across polls, none of these shifts have been present in polling before, and they fit with actual election results that we have seen. Dems did very poorly with young voters in the CA primaries and quite well with older voters.

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