Which party will win the US Presidency in Texas?
Standard
353
á¹€290k
Jan 1
10%
Democratic Party
90%
Republican Party
0.4%
Other

Resolves after the AP calls the race.

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á¹€1,000
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On the one hand, I guess I should be happy to take the money. But on the other hand, what are people seeing that makes them think this is only 85%??

@polymathematic Because average polling error within a single state one month out from the election is probably like 5%, lol

@benshindel but he's ahead by more than 6! i'd be happy to buy trump winning texas up to 95%.

@polymathematic Hence why the chance is 85%. The market is basically saying there's a 15% chance of an above-average polling error in Texas benefitting Harris.

@PlasmaBallin is that supposed to be symmetrical? So an implied 30-36% chance (since people have been buying Dems up to 18%) that Texas polling is going to be off by more than 6 points? That doesn’t seem reasonable. I think the most Texas polling has been off in the last 12 cycles is 4 points, and the average is 2.

@polymathematic The market may still be overestimating Harris - Nate Silver's model gives her single-digit chances in Texas. Are the numbers you gave for the final polling average or the polling average ~40 days out?

@PlasmaBallin well, that's a fair point, i was looking at final polling averages. again, i can see someone buying dems at 10%, maybe even up to 15. I do not understand multiple buys up to 18%. but hey, maybe i'm wrong!

bought á¹€100 Democratic Party YES
bought á¹€50 Democratic Party YES

I'm gonna win 40k off this market by November or I'm gonna look pretty stupid.

bought á¹€85 Republican Party YES

@AmandaSmith You are probably going to look pretty stupid...

bought á¹€30 Republican Party YES

@AlphaAbulikim I'm having trouble imagining Texas voting for a black woman.

Wait, is TX actually in play?

everything is "in play"

The Silver Bulletin actually gives Harris a larger chance of winning it than this market does

Even 538's admittedly flawed model gives Harris 24% chance of winning Texas.