This market resolves to the party of the winner of the 2026 election for U.S. Representative for Tennessee's 4th congressional district — the term beginning January 3, 2027.

Which round counts: the November 3, 2026 general election (plurality winner). Primaries do not count.

Party rule: the winner's party is the party on whose line or with whose party designation they appear on the official general-election ballot. A candidate nominated by Democratic Party or Republican Party who also appears on other parties' lines (fusion) counts as that party's candidate. Candidates who are independent, have no party preference, or belong to any other party resolve to "Another party or independent", even if they say they would caucus with a major party. Later party switches, caucus decisions, resignations or deaths after the result is certified do not change the resolution.

Replacements: if a nominee withdraws, dies or is replaced before the election, the market still resolves to the party of the certified winner; the names in the answer labels and below are informational only.

Results: resolves on the state's certified results. It may resolve earlier once the Associated Press has called the race and no recount, contest or runoff that could change the winner remains pending. If a recount or court-ordered correction changes the certified winner before resolution, the corrected certified result controls.

Postponement or cancellation: if the general election is postponed, the market stays open until the rescheduled election for the same term. If no election for this office and term is held, it resolves N/A.

Candidates on the certified general-election list at the time of creation (October 2026, informational):

• Jacob Anders — Independent

• Victoria Broderick — Democratic

• Scott DesJarlais — Republican

Starting probabilities are seeds set mechanically from the district's partisan lean, not forecasts.