Condition: Republicans control the U.S. Senate when the 120th Congress convenes on January 3, 2027: Republican senators hold at least 50 seats (with the Republican Vice President breaking ties). Otherwise this market resolves N/A.

Resolves YES if the U.S. Senate confirms 40 or more Article III judges (Supreme Court, courts of appeals, district courts and the Court of International Trade) between January 3, 2027 and January 3, 2029, as counted by the Federal Judicial Center's biographical directory or the Senate's record of confirmations. Resolves NO otherwise.

This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if Democrats win the Senate. Comparing the two shows what the market thinks control of the Senate changes.

Starting probability is a seed, not a forecast: anchored on public prediction-market prices where a related market exists, otherwise a prior.