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NO

I'm confused is this not the same as the other market? Why isn't this arb'd

@TobyBW This one? https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/32-will-the-sp-500-index-reach-a-ne

@SirCryptomind Yes

@TobyBW Scott didn't clarify that ACX was Intraday until December 20th , I had to actually EMAIL him for Manifold & Metaculus! 😂
https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/32-will-the-sp-500-index-reach-a-ne#s65PXoUVkvnqCPMpuyrj

Futures are at 4.814 oh boy

@JakobSchmidt Oh yes

$4,746 today

Not today! 6 days left of trading in 2023.

Market has moved and I have reconfigured my calculations. I am willing to put a large amount at 32%

@MarcusAbramovitch I don’t have enough mana to bet against you here, but what makes you so confident it’s <32%? Options math says around 20% chance of it being at 4820 or higher on the 29th, surely there’s also some chance of it hitting that and going back down

@dominic If you want rate cuts, market needs to stop being this way. The higher the market goes, the bigger the drop when the market realizes we won't get 6 rate cuts (which the market seems to think we are getting).
Build the markets too high and you might be asking for another rate hike.

@SirCryptomind I trust the market to be basically fairly priced, and the S&P 500 to be basically a random walk (with slight positive bias due to the risk free rate). If it wasn’t, then hedge funds would take the edge and correct the price until it was, right? So most indicators like these should already be priced in

@MarcusAbramovitch that didn't last long. Marcus Abramovitch filled limit order Ṁ172/Ṁ50,000 NO at 32% (cancelled) 18h

I set a big no order at 20%. Hope someone comes and takes it