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MANIFOLD
UK grid carbon intensity (gCO₂/kWh)
27
Ṁ0Ṁ510k
Final oracle price
90
Status
Settled
Trading has ended
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Market settled
All open positions were closed at the final oracle price of 90. Funding and trading have stopped.

Tracks finalized 30-minute UK grid carbon intensity actuals from NESO, measured in grams of CO₂ per kilowatt-hour.

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How much did I lose?

@Emanuele1000 Maybe it's just a potential loss compared to if I had closed at the high, I guess.

I pumped this market with a bit more subsidy so that ~everyone won who had open positions, and have settled it. I may resume a variation of this market in the future, but trading a derivative of this figure instead of something inherently repetitive and predictable.

Thank you for participating, and congrats to the big winners!

@Manifold it's weird. I still got an ADL message as this resolved. glad it is settled out, but I wonder if there's an order of operations issue

would totally open another long here, but who knows what’ll happen with the data sources again

@bigyahu I think with the current mechanism, the only way to make this market actually work properly would be to increase the max funding rate to like, 20%/hr, which would be an atrocious experience.

I am intending to close and resolve this market. If you take more trades now it is at your own risk! Your already-open trades have already been factored into the resolution decision and the final outcome will be fair to all existing open positions (nobody should come out majorly harmed)

It has mostly served it's purpose, but each method I have found to keep it alive seems pointless. It requires a significant effort to tweak both the funding curve & rates massively, but it is doable. Most importantly it pushed me to spend hours staring at models and building simulations for how perps actually work and figuring that out

More importantly, I am now very confident that when I release the new perps set (SPY, QQQ, etc.) which have a predictable trend, I will be capable of balancing them early on so that the house pool doesn't get constantly raided, and the trading experience is good.

@Gen okay, got it! i presume you will be adding limit orders and partial sells too?

@bigyahu Not today, but yes, they are planned features

@Gen thanks. can i also confirm with you that as per your previous message, this resolution is presumably preferable to closing out at a loss now (there won’t be some lockup of mana for a long time while a resolution decision is made)?

@traders how do you all feel about mana being locked up and probably being forced to take a loss when it reopens at a low value again + funding paid? surely there needs to be some compensation here for all the long positions

@bigyahu sounds like we aren't paying funding. so really it's just about enjoying the ride to a good spot again after it reopens

@Stralor hmm, we shall see

@bigyahu yeah very sorry that I’ve let it drag on, when I can sit and focus on it, I will prioritise this

@Gen is this going to update any time soon? i want to get out of this market, its just locking up my capital

@bigyahu it should have unstuck itself, but I’ll try to fix it later when the oracle roughly matches what it was when it froze

@Gen isn’t that unfair to long holders who are paying funding and will have the market reopened when price is back at or below entry? i would appreciate if you would minimally offset losses / reset mana balances on this market for those with ‘losses’ caused by the delay.

@Gen i hope you guys will find a solution to this that doesn’t severely disadvantage those with presently open positions, do let me know if there’s any intention to do so thanks

@bigyahu you are not paying funding. I am also considering closing the market indefinitely and voiding the open positions, solution TBD

Why is the Oracle update delayed? The graph is updating to the value on the website. Shouldn't this mean we can trade(or at least not be be blocked for the Oracle update delay)?

@frankjiang Does funding continue even when the market is suspended?...

@frankjiang I think this is actually the market being suspended due to lack of liquidity (or some other issue?) and the error message isn’t communicating that correctly.

@Emanuele1000 seems I'm still paying funding at an outdated price and can't escape 😭

@Emanuele1000 Sorry about this market being so terrible. It will eventually be shut down, because there really isn't a good way to preserve it. It was very informative though, helped us catch some bugs, and speedrun how predictability impacts trading and funding rates.

It doesn't seem so useful in this instance, but for SPY, QQQ, etc., I need to know how we can manipulate the levers to impact the trading experience (and know what breaks/drains the pool, etc.) when things are predictable. Those markets bleed upwards, we need to know how to support a pool which is 90% long, 10% short, and make sure the hold cost roughly equates to the implied normal growth of those assets. I promise, it wasn't a waste of time!

To answer your question though, the funding should be frozen too, while it's closed.

@Gen man I should break into the math and solve this for you... so tempting. it seems like the big crutch is that the amm is constantly paying out and being bled dry. needs more funding from trade activity and/or strong incentives to subsidize. at minimum these really would work much better with timed limit orders to increase implied liquidity

@Stralor also need partial sells of positions... and not single click accidental full exits

@Stralor (accurately predicted funding amounts in also on my wishlist. the displayed number is clearly 'if your trade didn't move the market this is the funding you'd get but it always moves it and often flips it entirely and can be shocking.)

those all seem the most pressing from a user side. I'll try not adding more suggestions atm or we'll be here all day