Doesn't really seem like we are predicting anything in any meaningful way

@ChurlishGambit why

I have no idea what I'm doing btw

If I close this position right now, how much do I get - the 250 I invested plus the unrealized profit? Or do I need to wait till it goes down 3% to get the profit? Idk guys

@Qoiuoiuoiu Thanks for the feedback - it should say the value!

I believe you will receive ~1750, the margin + unrealized profit.

@Gen my feedback to make this useful for most folks would be to have as a goal that it is nearly always profitable to trade based on what the underlying variable does rather than a complex equation of what the variable does, and what other traders think the variable does, and an infinite regress of strategising

Methodology change: this market now tracks VoteHub's published average.

From today the index is VoteHub's own time-weighted approval average, the number you can look up at votehub.com. Weights decay smoothly instead of falling off a cliff, so there's no scheduled expiry to trade against and new polls don't impact as sharply.

What this means for you:

• The mark moved from 38.19 to 38.4 at the switch. No positions are liquidated by this change.

• The index now updates whenever VoteHub's number changes (checked every 5 minutes, subject to change) instead of once a day at 5:30am PT.

• Funding (24h), fees and leverage are unchanged.

• We still compute our own average in the background as a cross-check. If it ever disagrees with VoteHub's by more than 3 points, the feed pauses rather than publishing a number we can't corroborate. Will remove this if everything works well long term / if it's ever an issue

Please note there have been fee changes sitewide for perps, look closely at the fee line when you open a new position! There are NO fees for closing a position. Also fixed a bug where positions would show as profitable when they actually weren't (it was calculating a figure gross of fees)

Also,

• API trade fee for this market has been set to 30bps (in line with others) but may change.

• Fee info is now visible in the market info and by clicking the "perpetuals" button.

• Impact fees have been applied to this market, meaning your fee scales with the percentage of the pool you are consuming

• More liquidity will be added

Thank you for helping us figure things out!

• 38.283 → 38.190: AlphaROC 39.5 + 38 observation rolled out.

@Gen stale again?

@bigyahu no that's the correct value

@bigyahu VoteHub approval: 38.646153846%

we need more liquidity…

They're way behind now.

look out below

@Gen is there something wrong with the calculation, or is it still using the old calculation?

@bigyahu I haven't updated the calculation yet, expect it to be far more similar to the published votehub number. Won't answer any more questions on it so that I don't give too much away.

Once it's updated and the new fees are in (see the bitcoin market) - I think we can start to add more liquidity to all perps. It has been a challenge, proper post coming soon with details

100k notional long yolo, i have insider info

@bigyahu

@traders i’ll match longs that you guys open with shorts, no more notional capacity for shorts

Why not just use the average as published by Vote Hub?

@ScottSupak I mean, I get the idea of wanting to simplify it, but if you're going to change to something that has a time decay, do the house effect adjustments and grade weights really matter that much?

Love the idea tho, my first play in a perpetual- very interesting.

We have a new method for determining this, but we're not going to switch until the existing one is within ~1% of the new method. Consider this a warning to deleverage or close out if this concerns you!

@Gen when the trigger condition is hit, will we be informed that it has switched?

@Gen aren't these two within 1% already??

@JasonMendoza2008 ??

@JasonMendoza2008 how would you know the value of the new calculation

@bigyahu I have superpowers

@JasonMendoza2008 I assume he meant 0.1?