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MANIFOLD
Trump approval rating
174
Ṁ230kṀ380k
Oracle price
38.100%
Funding
-0.027%/day
shorts pay longs
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Source: VoteHub (CC BY 4.0)

Tracks VoteHub's published time-weighted average of Donald Trump's approval rating (votehub.com/polls). The index updates whenever VoteHub's number changes, checked every 5 minutes.

Click TRUMP in the title for more info.

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EDIT: I'm stupid sorry nevermind

"Click perpetual in the title for more info."

Well, it says "Trump" there now, which is funny because an unhealthy 80 year old is the opposite of perpetual.

@ScottSupak good catch! Thanks for that 😄

This would work a lot better if the good people at Vote Hub did their jobs.

Doesn't really seem like we are predicting anything in any meaningful way

@JasonMendoza2008 lol please stop I don't need another notification from you asking why

@Gen 😂 my bad

@Gen Why not?

@Gen why /j/j/j

I have no idea what I'm doing btw

If I close this position right now, how much do I get - the 250 I invested plus the unrealized profit? Or do I need to wait till it goes down 3% to get the profit? Idk guys

@Qoiuoiuoiu Thanks for the feedback - it should say the value!

I believe you will receive ~1750, the margin + unrealized profit.

@Gen my feedback to make this useful for most folks would be to have as a goal that it is nearly always profitable to trade based on what the underlying variable does rather than a complex equation of what the variable does, and what other traders think the variable does, and an infinite regress of strategising

@JussiVilleHeiskanen isn’t it what we do (trade to predict what the variable will be next timestamp)? How is it a complex equation and how do other traders even influence us? Funding is so small it’s negligible

reposted

Methodology change: this market now tracks VoteHub's published average.

From today the index is VoteHub's own time-weighted approval average, the number you can look up at votehub.com. Weights decay smoothly instead of falling off a cliff, so there's no scheduled expiry to trade against and new polls don't impact as sharply.

What this means for you:

  • The mark moved from 38.19 to 38.4 at the switch. No positions are liquidated by this change.

  • The index now updates whenever VoteHub's number changes (checked every 5 minutes, subject to change) instead of once a day at 5:30am PT.

  • Funding (24h), fees and leverage are unchanged.

  • We still compute our own average in the background as a cross-check. If it ever disagrees with VoteHub's by more than 3 points, the feed pauses rather than publishing a number we can't corroborate. Will remove this if everything works well long term / if it's ever an issue

Please note there have been fee changes sitewide for perps, look closely at the fee line when you open a new position! There are NO fees for closing a position. Also fixed a bug where positions would show as profitable when they actually weren't (it was calculating a figure gross of fees)

Also,

  • API trade fee for this market has been set to 30bps (in line with others) but may change.

  • Fee info is now visible in the market info and by clicking the "perpetuals" button.

  • Impact fees have been applied to this market, meaning your fee scales with the percentage of the pool you are consuming

  • More liquidity will be added

Thank you for helping us figure things out!

  • 38.283 → 38.190: AlphaROC 39.5 + 38 observation rolled out.

@Gen stale again?

@bigyahu no that's the correct value

@bigyahu VoteHub approval: 38.646153846%

we need more liquidity…

They're way behind now.