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@Manifold will you resolve this early, like the Macron market from this group?

This should resolve NO. ABC has called 22 seats for Democrats, and that's the number of seats they hold now.

Democrats have 2 flips now, and Republicans only have a chance of flipping Oregon and Nevada, which is even.

This market is a composite of:

I think I'm missing 3 races, but I don't know which 3

Democrats currently hold 22 governorships. According to 538, the 22nd most blue-leaning governorship is Wisconsin, which is 49% to elect a Democrat.

In fact, it might be even better than this: Of the 5 races between 30%-70%, Democrats just have to win two for this to resolve NO, and Oregon is also in the vicinity of 50%. Not sure how correlated I should expect these to be.