This market resolves YES if an ICE agent fatally shoots a U.S. citizen or a U.S. citizen dies in ICE custody by March 31, 2026. Resolution will be based on official reports from ICE, the Department of Homeland Security, medical examiners, or credible news sources documenting the death of a U.S. citizen caused by or occurring during ICE operations or detention. Deaths must be confirmed as involving a U.S. citizen.
Only deaths that occur after the market creation date count.
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Just to confirm:
Rene Good & Alex Pretti don't count as they were before this market was created?
Does the bit about "Deaths must be confirmed as involving a U.S. citizen" overrule the bit about "This market resolves YES if [...] a person dies in ICE custody"?
I'm still betting, as both of these seem reasonably clear, but it would be nice to mention the timeframe that it applies to and that only US citizens dying in custody count.
@UnconditionalProbability Yeah, that's correct. Rene Good & Alex Pretti don't count. I've updated the description.
Just in case people are doubting the narrative that the Trump admin is caving to pressure and pulling back on deportations:
Trump is ending deportation surge in Minnesota, White House border czar says | Reuters
This market being at 36 % is far too high, should probably be below 15 %.