Will a model get 1500 elo on lmarena (lmsys) before July 2025?
16
100Ṁ1502resolved Oct 16
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that a model has achieved 1500 elo on lmarena (lmsys) before July 1st 2025.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ80 | |
| 2 | Ṁ42 | |
| 3 | Ṁ33 | |
| 4 | Ṁ31 | |
| 5 | Ṁ8 |
People are also trading
Model at 1600 Elo on lmarena before 2026?
3% chance
Will Lmarena be a relevant benchmark at EOY 2025?
51% chance
First model series to cross 1500 on lmarena.ai?
Who will have the highest ranking model on web.lmarena.ai by EOY 2025?
Will Mistral's next model make it to the top 10 models in LLM Arena by the end of 2025?
5% chance
Will a Kimi reasoning model top LMArena by EOY2025?
5% chance
What organization will have the top OPEN model on the Text leaderboard on LMArena at end of 2025?
Will Moonshot top the lmarena leaderboard by EOY?
7% chance
Will someone new reach 2800 Elo rating in 2025?
5% chance
Any LMArena model breaks 1650 Elo by 2027?
58% chance
Sort by:
boughtṀ30YES
bought Ṁ30 YES

People are also trading
Related questions
Model at 1600 Elo on lmarena before 2026?
3% chance
Will Lmarena be a relevant benchmark at EOY 2025?
51% chance
First model series to cross 1500 on lmarena.ai?
Who will have the highest ranking model on web.lmarena.ai by EOY 2025?
Will Mistral's next model make it to the top 10 models in LLM Arena by the end of 2025?
5% chance
Will a Kimi reasoning model top LMArena by EOY2025?
5% chance
What organization will have the top OPEN model on the Text leaderboard on LMArena at end of 2025?
Will Moonshot top the lmarena leaderboard by EOY?
7% chance
Will someone new reach 2800 Elo rating in 2025?
5% chance
Any LMArena model breaks 1650 Elo by 2027?
58% chance
