Will a model get 1500 elo on lmarena (lmsys) before May 2025
12
100Ṁ1618resolved May 1
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that a model has achieved 1500 elo on lmarena (lmsys) before May 1st 2025.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ102 | |
| 2 | Ṁ18 | |
| 3 | Ṁ11 | |
| 4 | Ṁ11 | |
| 5 | Ṁ3 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Will someone new reach 2800 Elo rating in 2025?
25% chance
First model series to cross 1500 on lmarena.ai?
Model at 1600 Elo on lmarena before 2026?
19% chance
Will Llama 4 Behemoth top the lmarena?
6% chance
Will Lmarena be a relevant benchmark at EOY 2025?
79% chance
GPT5 gets 1500 elo on lmarena.ai?
48% chance
Who will develop the first model to reach 1500 ELO on LLMArena Text leaderboard?
Who will have the highest ranking model on web.lmarena.ai by EOY 2025?
Will Meta's Llama family of models reach 2 billion downloads by September 30, 2025?
75% chance
Will Mistral's next model make it to the top 10 models in LLM Arena by the end of 2025?
45% chance