Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to the official statewide voter turnout figure for the November 4, 2025, Georgia Public Service Commission special election. Turnout will be determined by the total number of ballots cast as reported by the Georgia Secretary of State's Elections Division. If there is a runoff election, this will resolve based on the turnout in original election, not the runoff.
Background
The Georgia Public Service Commission (PSC) is a five-member body elected statewide, with members residing in specific districts, responsible for regulating utility services such as electricity, natural gas, and telecommunications within the state. The special election on November 4, 2025, is for two seats on the Commission, representing Districts 2 and 3. These elections were initially scheduled for 2024 but were postponed due to a lawsuit and subsequently rescheduled to return to their regular six-year term cycle.
Considerations
Voter turnout in special elections, particularly for down-ballot races like the Public Service Commission, can be significantly lower than in general elections. However, the 2025 special election may coincide with municipal elections in various localities, which could affect overall voter participation. The voter registration deadline for this election is October 6, and advance in-person absentee voting begins on October 14 and ends at October 31.
More info:
The turnout for the primaries was 2.8%: https://civicatlanta.org/blog/primary-election-psc-turnout
Ballotpedia: https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia_Public_Service_Commission_election,_2025
Hank green video about the election: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UgvE_gPi7Kc
Update 2025-10-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market options represent ranges, not exact values. For example, the first option "5%" means turnout of 5% or lower.
Update 2025-10-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market options represent inclusive ranges, not exact values. Each option covers a unique range of turnout percentages.
Update 2025-10-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market options represent inclusive ranges with clear boundaries:
5% means turnout ≤ 5%
10% means 5% < turnout ≤ 10%
Each subsequent option follows this pattern (e.g., 10% < turnout ≤ 15%, etc.)
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@traders I changed the answers to be clearer on what each one means, each one is a unique inclusive range
@Magyk Thanks for updating. You might consider further refinement between categories. For example, you might consider p ≤ 5 for the option, 5 < p ≤ 10, and so, where p is the turnout percentage. That way, it is clear how you handle 5.5% or 5.1%.
@Magyk thanks. I just want to point out that the lower bounds of the inequalities are still not quite right. For the second option, it should be
5 < p <= 10
And so on for the remaining markets. Otherwise they will not be mutually exclusive and exhaustive. In other words, you will have gaps between your intervals and it's unclear how those should be resolved. I think fixing that issue might help create interest in your Market