Will the S&P500 close within 1% of all time high at the end of Aug 2025?

100Ṁ490

Aug 31

55%

chance

ALL

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the S&P 500 Index closes within 1% of its all-time high on the last trading day of August 2025 (the 29th) Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

If rounded to the nearest penny, it is exactly 1% below all time high, this will resolve to 50%

Update 2025-08-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the closing price on the final trading day sets a new all-time high, this market will resolve to Yes.

Update 2025-08-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The all-time high (ATH) is the trailing ATH recorded up to and including the final trading day, not the ATH at the time of market creation.

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What if it's more than 1% higher than ATH?

@cvja then by definition it is at all time high. It is impossible to be above all time high because that simply sets a new ATH (and if it is there at the end of trading, this resolves yes)