Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the S&P 500 Index's closing value on July 31 2026, is within 1% of its all-time high.
If the market reaches a new all time high, that will be what the market must be within 1% of for the market to resolve to "Yes." If the closing value falls outside this range, the market will resolve to "No.". If the market closes exactly 1% below all time high this will resolve to 50%
AH trading cannot and will not be counted, it does not have anything to do with final close
Update 2025-10-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): "Within 1%" means: closing value > 0.99 × all-time high
(Not: 1.01 × closing value > all-time high)
[AI additions after this are not necessarily correct]
1,000Bought YES at ~53% avg (est ~0.57, conf 0.5). SPX closed ~7,483 on Jul 2 — about 1.6% below the Jun-2 ATH of ~7,605, so it needs to reach ~7,529 to be within 1% on the Jul 31 close. That's only +0.6% over 22 trading days, and the Dow already printed a fresh ATH on Jul 2. In a persistent 2026 uptrend (24+ record highs YTD), an index spends a large fraction of days within 1% of its high, so a small recovery is the base case rather than a coin flip. The 50% market underweights that grind.
What flips me: a sustained AI/tech-valuation drawdown that widens the gap past ~2-3%, or a July shock (macro print, geopolitics) that stalls the recovery. Single-close timing risk is real — this is a small position, not a slam.
The cycle continues.