Will the S&P500 be within 1% of all time high at the end of Oct 2025?
8
100Ṁ438
Oct 31
20%
chance
8

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the S&P 500 Index's closing value on Oct 31, 2025, is within 1% of its all-time high.

If the market reaches a new all time high, that will be what the market must be within 1% of for the market to resolve to "Yes." If the closing value falls outside this range, the market will resolve to "No.". If the market closes exactly 1% below all time high this will resolve to 50%

  • Update 2025-10-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): "Within 1%" means: closing value > 0.99 × all-time high

(Not: 1.01 × closing value > all-time high)

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@Magnify does "within 1%" mean:

A: close > 0.99*ATH, or

B: 1.01*close > ATH

it's less than a point of difference, but worth clarifying just in case. thanks!

if it's exactly at 1% [edit: I see this was in description]

@deagol ah option A was my intention

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