Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if EU leaders decide to use frozen Russian assets to help finance Ukraine's war effort by 31 December 2025. Resolution will be determined by official statements from the European Council or European Commission confirming that a decision has been made to deploy frozen Russian assets (whether through a reparations loan, direct financing, or other mechanism) to support Ukraine's military or budgetary needs. The decision must be formally adopted by EU leadership, not merely proposed or discussed.

Background

The European Union has indefinitely frozen hundreds of billions of Russian funds held in Europe to help Ukraine defend itself against Moscow. The Russian central bank assets held in the bloc are worth about €210 billion ($246 billion). The vast majority of the 210 billion euros in Russian assets, which were frozen as a result of EU sanctions on Moscow over its war on Ukraine, are held in Euroclear, a Belgian financial clearing house.

The European Commission has proposed a "reparations loan" of around 90 billion euros that Ukraine would only need to repay if and when Russia pays war reparations, a legal construction aimed at avoiding outright confiscation. It is expected that EU leaders gathering at the European Council on December 18 to finalise details of the reparations loan will offer guarantees to Belgium that it will not be left alone to foot the bill should a potential Moscow lawsuit prove successful.

Considerations

Critics argue the plan is legally questionable and risks retaliation by Moscow. The Russian Central Bank warned that it would "unequivocally" challenge any attempt by the European Union to use frozen Russian assets to finance loans for Ukraine in Russian courts, foreign jurisdictions and international tribunals. The indefinite freeze eliminates the risk that Hungary and Slovakia, which have better relations with Moscow than other EU states, might in future refuse to roll over the freeze, forcing the EU to return the money to Russia.